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RBI policy · Morning edition · Friday 30 October 2026

RBI policy is the event to watch today

1 report since yesterday, led by Mint: “US Fed FOMC pauses interest rates: Can Nifty bulls take charge or will RBI hike spoil the rally? Investors guide”

61/ 100, significant

What happened

Before the open on Friday 30 October, the Nifty 50 stands at its last close of 22,936.75 (+1.05% in that session). 1 overnight report covers RBI policy.

Who it moved

PSU banks
+2.20% last session
Realty
+2.75% last session
Financials
+1.17% last session

Nifty 50 22,936.75 (+1.05%), India VIX 15.20, as of 30 Oct, 08:30 IST.

How we scored it

Method
Market impact (25%)76

Based on the +2.20% move in PSU banks against a usual daily swing of 1.16%.

Company impact (15%)54

17 of the 50 Nifty 50 companies are in the industries this touches.

Investor relevance (15%)90

The fixed weight for RBI policy.

News velocity (15%)20

1 report from 1 publisher in the last 18 hours.

Search interest (10%)25

1 publisher ran it within six hours of the first report. This stands in for search data, which has no free source in India.

Historical significance (10%)47

Outcomes after comparable sessions were 0.94 times as spread out as usual.

Data availability (10%)100

4 of the 4 inputs we use were available.

What followed similar days

We found 693 past sessions when the Nifty moved up by a similar amount since 7 November 2016. Five sessions later the Nifty was higher 60% of the time. The median move was +0.5% after five sessions and +0.14% the next day.

Higher by more than 1%

36% of similar days

A quarter of these sessions gained +1.5% or more five sessions later.

Within 1% either way

42% of similar days

The median move five sessions later was +0.5%.

Lower by more than 1%

22% of similar days

A quarter of these sessions fell −0.8% or worse five sessions later.

What happened after similar days in the past, five sessions on. This is history, not a forecast or a target. Daily closes: Yahoo Finance.

Our take

We score this a significant event, 61 out of 100. Across 693 past sessions when the Nifty moved up by a similar amount since 2016, the Nifty was higher five sessions later 60% of the time, with a median move of +0.5%. The record leans positive, but a quarter of those sessions still saw −0.8% or worse. This describes what has happened before; it is not a forecast or a recommendation.

Reports we counted

Written automatically from public data using fixed rules; no person picks the event or edits the numbers. This is market information, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. See the disclaimer.

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