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Oil prices · Morning edition · Wednesday 4 November 2026

Oil prices is the event to watch today

6 reports since yesterday, led by Business Standard: “Stock Market LIVE: GIFT Nifty signals negative open; Asia markets decline; Brent near $103”

74/ 100, significant

What happened

Before the open on Wednesday 4 November, the Nifty 50 stands at its last close of 23,810.85 (+1.58% in that session). 6 overnight reports cover oil prices.

Who it moved

FMCG
+3.65% last session
Auto
+1.71% last session
Energy
−0.11% last session

Nifty 50 23,810.85 (+1.58%), India VIX 15.67, as of 4 Nov, 08:30 IST.

How we scored it

Method
Market impact (25%)100

Based on the +3.65% move in FMCG against a usual daily swing of 1.36%.

Company impact (15%)32

10 of the 50 Nifty 50 companies are in the industries this touches.

Investor relevance (15%)60

The fixed weight for oil prices.

News velocity (15%)84

6 reports from 3 publishers in the last 18 hours.

Search interest (10%)75

3 publishers ran it within six hours of the first report. This stands in for search data, which has no free source in India.

Historical significance (10%)49

Outcomes after comparable sessions were 0.97 times as spread out as usual.

Data availability (10%)100

4 of the 4 inputs we use were available.

What followed similar days

We found 252 past sessions when the Nifty moved up by a similar amount since 10 November 2016. Five sessions later the Nifty was higher 62% of the time. The median move was +0.7% after five sessions and +0.20% the next day.

Higher by more than 1%

40% of similar days

A quarter of these sessions gained +1.6% or more five sessions later.

Within 1% either way

38% of similar days

The median move five sessions later was +0.7%.

Lower by more than 1%

22% of similar days

A quarter of these sessions fell −0.7% or worse five sessions later.

What happened after similar days in the past, five sessions on. This is history, not a forecast or a target. Daily closes: Yahoo Finance.

Our take

We score this a significant event, 74 out of 100. Across 252 past sessions when the Nifty moved up by a similar amount since 2016, the Nifty was higher five sessions later 62% of the time, with a median move of +0.7%. The record leans positive, but a quarter of those sessions still saw −0.7% or worse. This describes what has happened before; it is not a forecast or a recommendation.

Reports we counted

Written automatically from public data using fixed rules; no person picks the event or edits the numbers. This is market information, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. See the disclaimer.

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